“The Bear” has a lot going for it. The series is a true hit and has received 23 nominations, a record for a comedy series. It dominated the last Emmy Awards, which is usually a sure bet for future success at the ceremony (see: “Last Week Tonight”, “Modern Family”, “Mad Men” or “Game of Thrones”, all regular winners).
But there are some warning signs for “The Bear.” The show's third season, which debuted in June, received a much cooler reception than the first two seasons, right when Emmy voting was underway. Voters are technically considering the show's second season from 2023, but distinguishing them can be confusing even for industry insiders.
Moreover, when “The Bear” broke nominations records in July, some observers were surprised that the series — a tense workplace show often described as tense rather than humorous — was even considered a comedy.
The Max series “Hacks,” starring Jean Smart, is nominated for its excellent third season and has a good chance of turning heads. Over the summer, “The Bear” didn't win at the TCA Awards, where Smart won the award for best comedy performance and “Hacks” earned the top comedy honor. “Curb Your Enthusiasm” is also nominated for its final season, and could get a big share of the emotional votes. The HBO series has won only two Emmys during its 12 seasons (Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series in 2003 and Outstanding Picture Editing for a Single-Camera Comedy Series in 2012, two relatively minor awards).
Then there’s “Abbott Elementary,” which has already won four Emmy Awards for its first two seasons and is still up for outstanding comedy.
But then again, this is the Emmy Awards, where upsets are usually the exception, not the rule.