2024 Republicans gather in Iowa with 100 days to go before the caucuses




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On Saturday — 100 days before Iowa Republicans head to their caucuses — Iowa will once again become the focal point of the GOP presidential race as much of the region’s ambitions collide in the Hawkeye State.

It is likely to remain the center of attention to a great extent in the near future.

Former President Donald Trump’s enduring popularity in Iowa and in the early Republican presidential nomination map has forced much of the field to aggressively focus its attention on the state in hopes of halting his march toward the nomination. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, in particular, sees the state as a must-win, but others see it as a last stand to demonstrate that Trump is a viable alternative to Trump before it’s too late. may emerge.

The candidates’ planned scripts went awry on Saturday as Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared his country “at war” in the wake of a surprise attack by Palestinian militants in Gaza, who fired a deadly barrage of rockets and gunfire into Israeli territory. Sent.

DeSantis said on Saturday that America stands with Israel. “They have a responsibility to protect themselves with overwhelming force,” he said in a meet-and-greet at a coffee shop in Ankeny, Iowa. He said President Joe Biden needs to provide “moral clarity.”

Meanwhile, Trump condemned the rocket attacks as a “barbaric act” at a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa, and blamed the Biden administration, which is attempting to link the attacks to perceptions of Biden’s leadership abroad. .

Veteran Iowa activists and observers say the stakes for the caucuses — which don’t traditionally serve as kingmakers — have rarely felt so intense.

Jeff Angelo, who broadcasts a conservative radio show, said, “Trump has such a huge lead in this domestic round, you’ll find out at the end of this caucus whether anyone can legitimately challenge him or whether it’s all over.” It is done.” Iowa is where presidential candidates regularly appear. “I really get the sense that candidates understand it’s Iowa or nothing. If you’re not close here, there is no strategy to defeat Donald Trump.

DeSantis’ campaign is not hiding its urgency. It recently moved a third of its Tallahassee campaign staff to Des Moines and the candidate took advantage of the Iowa media for much of last week, even as he campaigned and raised money elsewhere. On Saturday, he begins a three-day bus tour concluding with a promise to touch all 99 Iowa counties. He started the day at the age of 58.

A super PAC supporting DeSantis, Never Back Down, has spent $9.8 million so far to promote DeSantis on Iowa’s airwaves, more than any other political committee or campaign, according to data provided by AdImpact. There is more money in comparison. Next closest, SFA Fund. Super PAC Inc. affiliated with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has spent $6.7 million.

“The only thing that really matters is Iowa,” said Pete Snyder, a former Virginia gubernatorial candidate who is now raising money for DeSantis. “If you don’t win that, nobody’s going anywhere.”

Trump must also be sensing a growing race in Iowa. After avoiding the campaign trail for most of the summer, Trump has reconnected with early nominating states, particularly Iowa. Trump held a rally in Ottumwa last weekend and his campaign will have stops in Waterloo and Cedar Rapids on Saturday. Seven stops are planned in Iowa in October as part of a strategic effort to maintain momentum heading into the January 15 caucuses, his advisers said, especially as his rivals continue to woo voters in the nation’s first nominating state. Entering the field. CNN.

For many Republicans, Trump is the only candidate they will consider.

“I haven’t really been involved with any of the other candidates,” Zachary Musgrove, 29, told CNN at the Ottumwa rally. “I’m Trump in every way.”

However, not all attendees of the recent rally have made up their minds about who they will vote for. Pat Inmund, 64, told CNN she is considering all the candidates but currently plans to caucus for Haley.

Inmund said, “I just like his personality, and he commented about how many old people are in Congress, and it’s like a nursing home.” “And I thought, ‘Oh, I’m like, you know, we need to have some age limits.'”

Haley is heading to Iowa this weekend for three campaign stops, including town hall meetings with voters in Sioux City, Ida Grove and Boone. They are the latest in a series of regular visits by him to all corners of the state throughout the year.

Haley also intends to step up her organizational efforts in Iowa, a Republican close to the campaign told CNN, with an announcement scheduled for Monday as she wraps up her weekend trip to the state. Her campaign says she is approaching 50 appearances in the state.

More than many of her rivals, Haley has followed a three-state strategy, focusing equally on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the first three states on the GOP nominating calendar. She is working to win over Republicans who are eager to move on from Trump, but have not yet been persuaded by DeSantis or other challengers.

“She’s smart, she’s tough and she’s passionate,” said Jane Barth, a Republican voter from West Des Moines who recently came to see Haley in Iowa. Her performance in the first Republican primary debate caught Barth’s attention. did. “I think she’d be fantastic.”

Haley is targeting women as well as business-minded Republicans as she works to build a coalition of support in Iowa. While evangelicals hold considerable influence in the Iowa caucuses, that bloc is expected to be divided among multiple challengers, which aides say provides an opportunity for Republicans looking to take a new direction for the party. .

“I think she looks at the bigger picture, from the border to China and Russia,” said Republican Katie Clark of West Des Moines. Who keeps Haley at the top of her list of choices. “We have to find someone stronger, which I think he is. I am very happy with him.”

Others have also placed Iowa at the center of their strategies. Also on Saturday, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson will try to keep their White House aspirations alive by visiting the state.

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina has also made an effort in Iowa, appealing to the state’s evangelical voters with a faith-centered campaign that has leaned into the anti-abortion fight. His campaign has already spent $6 million on ads in Iowa and a super PAC supporting Scott has reserved $14.5 million in airtime for the fall — more than twice as much as the DeSantis Never Back Down supporter. Is.

The candidates are emphasizing that the race is not yet decided, noting that Iowa is often a late draw.

At this stage of the 2016 nomination battle, neurosurgeon Ben Carson was leading in Iowa and Ted Cruz was polling in single digits there. Cruz ultimately finished first while Carson finished fourth. Many of the architects behind Cruz’s victory are now trying to make a similar late surge for DeSantis in Iowa.

DeSantis’ team insists that their strategy — being visible across the state, moving to the right of Trump on abortion and immigration, garnering local support and knocking on thousands of doors — will prove victorious in a state that has consistently rewarded organized campaigns. Have done, lots of face time and deeply conservative candidates.

Ryan Tyson, a senior adviser to the DeSantis campaign, said, “The only number that has gone up in Iowa this summer is the Never Trump consideration metric – voters who self-identify they will not vote for Trump.”

DeSantis’ expectation is that a close win or outright victory in Iowa will clear the field and recast the race as a two-man battle with Trump, which is why he is looking at other early battleground states. Giving priority to Iowa.

Angelo said DeSantis’ strategy now resembles “hopeful rhetoric,” though he added, “but you have to do it that way.”

None of the 2016 contenders held the kind of lead in Iowa that Trump has maintained since the summer. Polls show Trump 30 points ahead of the next closest contender, DeSantis, and getting support from about half of likely Republican caucus goers.

Trump advisers said they have learned from the mistakes of his 2016 campaign team, where they had no caucus plan, and are confident they are in a position to win the state in January.

Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump adviser, said, “Trump is a very different candidate now than he was in 2016. He has a huge reservoir of goodwill with conservative voters.” “He is not just a politician who is a businessman and saying he is going to do this. He’s a former president who’s saying, ‘Look what I did.’ And he literally has an operation that can back up everything he says.”

DeSantis has recently taken aim at that record and stepped up his attacks on Trump.

As winter approaches and Trump’s lead continues, donors seeking to move on from Trump have stepped up calls to narrow the field and clear the way for an alternative to emerge.

Doug Gross, former chief of staff to Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, said that the state’s labor-intensive caucus system – where Republicans gather in churches, schools and community centers, often in the cold night and debate for hours over whom to support – The opportunity for someone like DeSantis or Haley to emerge is gone.

“The problem right now is that they need to take some people out of the race,” Gross said.

But it’s not clear which candidate in Iowa would benefit most from winning the field. A recent Fox Business survey of Republican caucus goers found that DeSantis, Scott, Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy were given equal consideration for the second-best candidate. One in 10 surveyed were still unsure who their backup choice would be and 7% chose Trump, suggesting that a consolidated field would not necessarily doom the former president.

University of Iowa student Kyle Clair, an official with the College Republicans there, said he will caucus for DeSantis today but is open to anyone challenging Trump.

“We need a different candidate than Trump,” Claure said. “So you know, at the end of the day, if (DeSantis) gets down to second place, I think someone else in the state of Iowa who will be able to defeat him, I would rather caucus for them.”


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