2024 US Olympic Trials
Thanks to Barry Revzin for running the numbers.
We've completed eight sessions at the 2024 US Olympic Trials, which means we have a lot of data to look at in between sessions. Before this meet began we only had entry data, but now we have actual results available.
You may have heard hyperbole like “fastest prelims ever,” but let’s look at the numbers and see if that’s true or just an exaggeration.
Who removes, who adds, who joins the trial?
this meeting It's a bit of a pressure cooker to make the meet, and once the athletes get here, this is not a meet where a lot of swimmers are going to drop times off their seeds, and the data reflects that.
| Group | Total Athlete | Advanced | Corrected % | was cut | Cut Made % | |
| All | 1040 | 295 | 28.37% | 636 | 61.15% | |
| Men | 593 | 185 | 31.20% | 375 | 63.24% | |
| women | 447 | 110 | 24.61% | 261 | 58.39% | |
| Indiana | 80 | 24 | 30.00% | 51 | 63.75% | |
| Sandpipers | 16 | 4 | 25.00% | 15 | 93.75% |
Luke Ellis (3:54.33 –> 3:50.79), 400 free |
Only 27.22% of all athletes missed their entry time. Liam Bell He holds the distinction of having the biggest drop (by percentage) so far in the meet. A 2.26-second drop in the 100 breast moved him from 43rd to fourth.
This is another vine that ranks at the top in women's events. Lucy Bell She dropped from 72nd to 19th in the 100 m fly, dropping 1.29 seconds.
We also broke the data down into two other categories to answer some of our questions. Earlier this week, I speculated that home fans were pushing Indiana's swimmers to be great swimmers, and as a group they were outperforming the average.
It's also worth noting that the “Indiana” category includes all athletes representing the LSC, not necessarily swimmers who were born and raised in the Hoosier State. That's why Chris GuilianoHere's where the rankings are headed. The Notre Dame-trained swimmer hails from Pennsylvania.
Adding the Sandpipers category was something I jokingly suggested to Barry, but it's an interesting statistic to look at. Again, this only includes athletes currently representing the Sandpipers, so this line does not include alumni Bella Sims which is included with Florida. Only four sandpipers have ever achieved the best time, but most Ron Aitken-Trained swimmers had to undergo trial cut during swimming.
Keeping track of how many athletes made the trial cut at this meet is an interesting metric to track performance levels. Some athletes targeted this meet and recently ran qualifying times, so it is understandable to see some regression when it comes time for the big meet.
Instead, look at a table that breaks it down by occurrence:
| events | Total Athlete | Advanced | Corrected % | was cut | Cut Made % | |
| F 400 Medley | 40 | 6 | 15.00% | 17 | 42.50% |
Audrey Deriveaux (4:49.32 –> 4:45.23) |
| f 100 boobs | 76 | 14 | 18.42% | 34 | 44.74% |
Katelyn Gridley (1:07.87 –> 1:06.67) |
| F 100 Free | 56 | 11 | 19.64% | 38 | 67.86% |
Lily Nordman (55.43 –> 55.03) |
| F 200 Free | 50 | 10 | 20.00% | 36 | 72.00% |
Katie Crome (1:59.26 –> 1:57.91) |
| M 400 Medley | 78 | 18 | 23.08% | 38 | 48.72% |
Levi Sandidge (4:22.85 –> 4:17.61) |
| f 1500 free | 37 | 9 | 24.32% | 24 | 64.86% |
Mila Nikanorov (16:44.60 –> 16:27.05) |
| m 100 boobs | 81 | 21 | 25.93% | 49 | 60.49% | |
| M 100 rear | 75 | 20 | 26.67% | 46 | 61.33% |
David King (55.51 –> 54.67) |
| Fly F 100 | 76 | 23 | 30.26% | 45 | 59.21% | |
| Fly M200 | 54 | 17 | 31.48% | 34 | 62.96% |
Tommy Breed (2:00.43 –> 1:57.59) |
| f 100 rear | 63 | 20 | 31.75% | 31 | 49.21% |
Josephine Fuller (59.67 –> 58.79) |
| M800 FREE | 52 | 17 | 32.69% | 39 | 75.00% |
Sean Green (8:07.31 –> 7:56.47) |
| m100 free | 63 | 21 | 33.33% | 42 | 66.67% |
Quintin McCarty (49.86 –> 48.95) |
| M 200 Free | 54 | 18 | 33.33% | 38 | 70.37% | |
| F 400 Free | 49 | 17 | 34.69% | 36 | 73.47% |
Mila Nikanorov (4:15.33 –> 4:11.57) |
| m 200 breast | 76 | 27 | 35.53% | 53 | 69.74% |
Gabe Nunziata (2:15.38 –> 2:11.78) |
| M 400 Free | 60 | 26 | 43.33% | 36 | 60.00% |
Luke Ellis (3:54.33 –> 3:50.79) |
Not all of the swimmers in the “biggest letdown” category made it to the semifinals or finals, which is proof that the trials aren't just about selecting the team; it's also about giving the next generation a chance to rub shoulders with the best in a high-pressure, high-production environment.
How is the work completed?
Finally, let's look at how the qualifying times for each round have changed. We've been tracking this since 2012. You can draw your own conclusions in the comments, but I want to highlight the most heinous stat: the speed required to make the Olympic team in the 100 butterfly. Second-place times dropped by nearly a second, which seems absurd on paper, but when you remember that there were three generations of talents running together in that final, it makes more sense.
The women's 400m is an exception. All the other 400m events have become faster in order to make the team, but the 400m has lagged behind.
Tonight is the finals of the men's and women's 100 free swims, so we have unbiased data, but it's interesting to note the difference in prelims and semi-qualifying times so far. Both events took a big step forward in 16th place times, but the women's event almost returned to 2016 standards after the semis. The men's event, on the other hand, was by far the fastest of the final four quads through both rounds.
Time to make it to the semifinals
| events | 2012 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 |
| Fly F 100 | 59.87 | 59.87 | 59.05 | 58.73 |
| F 400 Medley | 4:43.17 | 4:42.04 | 4:42.63 | 4:45.23 |
| m 200 breast | 2:13.87 | 2:14.70 | 2:13.14 | 2:12.02 |
| F 100 Free | 55.38 | 55.32 | 55.22 | 54.72 |
| m100 free | 49.76 | 49.55 | 49.07 | 48.72 |
| M 200 Free | 1:49.71 | 1:48.63 | 1:48.15 | 1:47.39 |
| f 100 rear | 1:02.22 | 1:01.32 | 1:01.02 | 1:00.71 |
| f 100 boobs | 1:09.39 | 1:08.54 | 1:09.00 | 1:08.81 |
| f 1500 free | N/A | N/A | 16:16.09 | 16:25.33 |
| F 400 Free | 4:10.38 | 4:10.52 | 4:10.51 | 4:09.87 |
| F 200 Free | 2:00.36 | 2:00.00 | 2:00.03 | 1:59.66 |
| m 100 boobs | 1:01.80 | 1:01.41 | 1:00.81 | 1:00.80 |
| M 100 rear | 55.49 | 55.41 | 54.52 | 54.59 |
| M800 FREE | N/A | N/A | 7:57.11 | 7:56.47 |
| M 400 Medley | 4:19.33 | 4:15.41 | 4:17.60 | 4:17.35 |
| Fly M200 | 2:00.03 | 1:58.70 | 1:58.37 | 1:58.37 |
| M 400 Free | 3:49.89 | 3:50.52 | 3:49.49 | 3:48.63 |
time to reach the finals
| events | 2012 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 |
| Fly F 100 | 58.72 | 58.81 | 58.21 | 57.97 |
| m 200 breast | 2:12.00 | 2:13.44 | 2:10.76 | 2:11.14 |
| F 100 Free | 54.6 | 54.07 | 54.15 | 54.09 |
| m100 free | 49.03 | 49.18 | 48.73 | 48.11 |
| M 200 Free | 1:48.09 | 1:47.84 | 1:47.00 | 1:47.00 |
| f 100 rear | 1:00.76 | 1:00.46 | 1:00.18 | 59.33 |
| f 100 boobs | 1:07.70 | 1:07.60 | 1:07.26 | 1:07.73 |
| F 200 Free | 1:58.64 | 1:58.43 | 1:58.22 | 1:57.63 |
| m 100 boobs | 1:00.83 | 1:00.30 | 1:00.36 | 59.78 |
| M 100 rear | 54.51 | 54.63 | 53.82 | 53.83 |
| Fly M200 | 1:58.45 | 1:57.10 | 1:57.08 | 1:56.73 |
Time to make the Olympic team
| events | 2012 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 |
| Fly F 100 | 57.57 | 57.21 | 56.43 | 55.52 |
| F 400 Medley | 4:34.48 | 4:36.81 | 4:33.96 | 4:35.56 |
| M 200 Free | 1:46.88 | 1:47.53 | 1:46.49 | 1:46.09 |
| f 100 rear | 59.49 | 59.29 | 58.6 | 57.91 |
| f 100 boobs | 1:05.99 | 1:06.07 | 1:05.28 | 1:06.10 |
| F 400 Free | 4:04.18 | 4:00.65 | 4:04.86 | 4:02.08 |
| F 200 Free | 1:58.40 | 1:57.65 | 1:57.61 | 1:57.05 |
| m 100 boobs | 1:00.15 | 59.26 | 58.74 | 59.16 |
| M 100 rear | 52.86 | 52.28 | 52.48 | 52.72 |
| M800 FREE | N/A | N/A | 7:49.94 | 7:45.19 |
| M 400 Medley | 4:07.89 | 4:11.02 | 4:10.33 | 4:09.39 |
| M 400 Free | 3:47.83 | 3:44.66 | 3:48.17 | 3:45.76 |
what comes next?
There are still nine sessions left, including this morning's session, so stay tuned for more data analysis throughout the week.