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This season, the number of cases of Prinsa burning has reduced from 5,254 to 2,356 in Punjab. Haryana and Rajasthan have also seen a significant reduction in cases.
Residents of the national capital saw a drastic improvement in air quality on Tuesday, as the Air Quality Index (AQI) dropped to 268 (poor). But this relief may not last long as the toxic smog is likely to deteriorate to severe levels around Diwali due to additional emissions from firecrackers and bird/fung fires.
The latest forecast from IITM, Pune showed that the AQI dropped from 304 (very poor) on Monday to 268 (poor) the next day, but on October 31 and November 1 it was as high as '400'. The mark is likely to be crossed. Winds are weak – 4-8 km/h, dropping dramatically overnight. Daytime temperatures are settling around 34-35℃, and have not dropped as much as expected at this time of year.
“When the weather cools, the inversion layer (the upper layer of the atmosphere) descends. It also reduces the ventilation efficiency – the rate at which pollution spreads. So if that happens, it's Delhi. could be catastrophic,” said Prof Ghafran Baig, former founding director of SAFAR (System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research) in an exclusive interview.
The latest weather forecasts indicate a drop of 2-3℃ and calmer winds after November 2. “If bursting of firecrackers continues like last year, residents of Delhi may face a very difficult situation from midnight on November 1, as it may temporarily increase pollution levels.”
Significant reduction in stubble fire this year too
Much to everyone's relief, incidents of princely burnings have reduced after 2021, and this year is no exception. The overall number of fires has halved in Punjab, which has the largest area under paddy cultivation. Punjab has reported only 2,356 fires since September 15, compared to 5,254 in the previous kharif season. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh it is also lower, but the improvement in Uttar Pradesh is not so much.
“About 300 to 400 fires are being reported daily. It used to be a lot earlier. But the peak days are still there, which are usually the first two weeks of November. So, if that happens, and If the winds become northwesterly, it can simultaneously throw higher amounts of PM2.5 into the air,” said Prof Baig, who is now at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru. .
Can Delhi's air ever become cleaner?
According to experts, Delhi's perennial pollution problem needs to be tackled through an air shed approach whereby similar mitigation measures should be taken in neighboring states. While road dust remains a culprit for high concentrations of PM10 in Delhi, experts say the focus should be on controlling the most toxic PM2.5, which comes from burning coal, gas and oil. It happens.
“Fossil fuel emissions, especially from the transport sector, are responsible for most of the PM2.5 concentration in Delhi, and are far more dangerous than PM10. So we should focus on reducing road congestion. Also, we have done a lot of work on city-level emissions, now there is a need to implement measures in neighboring states as well Will not see the change.