by Bruce Einhorn
A mission that would have reduced the US government's reliance on Elon Musk's SpaceX is coming to an end as NASA turns to it for help, highlighting just how much influence billionaire Musk and his close-knit company have over America's ambitions in outer space.
For years, SpaceX has provided the only way for people to get to the International Space Station via American rockets.
Musk's company is the world's leading provider of satellite launches and his Starlink network is the top operator of internet services from low Earth orbit.
To give itself more options, NASA wanted to use Boeing Co.'s new spacecraft Starliner to travel to the ISS. Astronauts Sunita “Suni” Williams and Barry “Butch” Wilmore became the first people to travel on Starliner in early June, a journey of about a week.
They are still there.
Multiple technical glitches with the space capsule led NASA to announce on August 24 that the two would have to return from their previously scheduled February flight aboard SpaceX's Crew Dragon. The move is a major blow to Boeing's space business, and a sign of how dependent NASA has become on Musk's company for critical space operations.
NASA “always wanted to have more than one option” but until now that hasn't been possible, said Carter Palmer, principal space systems analyst at Forecast International, an aerospace and defense market research firm based in Sandy Hook, Connecticut.
The US space agency has not given up its hopes for Starliner. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told reporters that he is confident that Starliner will be launched again with a crew.
Launch unevenness
Even before the Starliner crisis, SpaceX's dominant position in the US space ecosystem had attracted attention, especially among Musk's critics.
SpaceX has launched more than 80 missions on its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets this year, including several for the U.S. government, compared with just four for rival United Launch Alliance and 10 for Rocket Lab USA Inc. Musk's space company has completed 96 launches through 2023.
The market for putting large geostationary satellites into orbit is a “temporary de facto monopoly,” according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Davis. He wrote in a July 17 research note that “only SpaceX has commercial launches in 2023, though three rivals were successful in 2022,” including ULA and Europe’s Arianespace.
SpaceX also has an edge over rivals in launching small, low-Earth satellites. Its Starlink space-based Internet service already has more than 6,000 communications satellites in operation. Amazon.com Inc. plans to build a rival network, Project Kuiper, but so far has launched only two test satellites.
Starlink's global reach has extended to the battlefield, including unauthorized user access in regions subject to US sanctions.
Ukraine has relied on Starlink to provide vital communications services during its war against Russia, and Musk alarmed many of his critics last year by saying he had rejected Kiev's request to use the network to attack Russian targets near the coast of occupied Crimea. Earlier this year, Ukrainian military intelligence said Russian forces were using Starlink terminals on the front lines, though SpaceX has since taken steps to work with U.S. government officials to limit illegal use by Russia.
“The potential influence Mr. Musk has exerted on U.S. foreign policy and recent comments that reflect an apparent indifference to U.S. national security concerns raise questions,” Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote in a letter to the U.S. Department of Defense in May.
“This problem is exacerbated not only by Mr. Musk's personal wealth, but also by the fact that SpaceX has a near monopoly on satellite Internet access and space payload delivery and passenger travel — a worrisome national security threat,” they wrote.
Space Force contract
SpaceX has a growing portfolio of business deals with the Pentagon. Last September, the company won its first contract from the US Space Force to provide customized satellite communications for the military.
The Defense Department has dismissed concerns that it is too dependent on SpaceX, with a senior official saying the company provides valuable services to the government but adding that the government expects more competition to develop later this decade.
Another U.S. company capable of flying to the ISS is Northrop Grumman Corporation, but its Cygnus space freighter operates unmanned cargo missions, with its most recent arrival at the space station on Aug. 6.
Jonathan Clark, a clinical professor at Baylor College of Medicine's Center for Space Medicine, whose experience with NASA includes serving as a crew surgeon for six space shuttle missions, said that because it has flown so many more missions than any rival, SpaceX is far ahead of other companies in building reliable and safe vehicles.
“The most reliable spacecraft is Crew Dragon,” he said. “It's all about gaining experience and having a robust, proven system — and right now Crew Dragon is that.”
Musk's growing popularity in space comes at a time when he has surprised people by intervening in political issues.
The chief executive of SpaceX and Tesla Inc has endorsed former President Donald Trump's re-election bid and called Vice President Kamala Harris, the chairwoman of the National Space Council and Trump's main U.S. presidential race rival, “actually a communist” in an Aug. 7 post on his social media platform X.
He also faced criticism this year for mocking the policies of US allies such as Australia and Britain.
Some American astronauts may still travel to the ISS aboard Russian rockets, as the space station is one of the last places where Washington and Moscow cooperate following President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
NASA's Donald Pettit is scheduled to fly with two astronauts on Russia's Soyuz MS-26 spacecraft in September. But NASA does not want to become dependent on Russia, which the US government considers a strategic threat in space.
Published 27 August 2024, 10:42 First