CNN poll: Harris has slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, while she and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania




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Vice President Kamala Harris holds slight leads in two of the three “blue wall” states that collectively represent her clearest path to an Electoral College victory over former President Donald Trump, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. Are.

Harris holds a lead over Trump among likely voters in Michigan, 48% to 43%. Harris is also ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, where 51% people support her while 45% people are in favor of Trump. But the races are tied in Pennsylvania (both with 48% support), the biggest electoral prize of the three states and central to any candidate's hopes of winning the White House. All three states swung in Trump's favor in 2016, but President Joe Biden won them in 2020.

Of the seven states rated as a tossup by CNN, Michigan and Wisconsin are the only two where voters' ballots still include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. – the former independent candidate who suspended his bid for the presidency and rallied behind Trump. Gave his support. Kennedy has 3% support in Michigan and 1% support in Wisconsin. Overall support for third-party and independent candidates is highest in Michigan, with 6% of likely voters there saying they support a candidate other than Harris or Trump.

There is less support for independent and third-party candidates among those likely voters who express the greatest motivation to vote. Among likely voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote in Michigan, 51% support Harris while 45% support Trump. In Wisconsin, they split 52% Harris to 47% Trump, and in Pennsylvania, they split 50% for Harris and 47% for Trump.

The overall results are nearly identical to CNN polling conducted in these three states in late summer, when Harris led Trump in Wisconsin 50% to 44% and in Michigan 48% to 43%, with Harris and Trump tied. Were. 47% in Pennsylvania.

Most of the voters in the Blue Wall State have decided their choice. Only 8% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, 7% in Michigan and 6% in Wisconsin say they have not made a choice or may change their mind before Election Day.

Harris is close to Trump on trust in his handling of the economy and ahead of him in trust in his handling of democracy in both Michigan and Wisconsin, where she has a wider advantage on key features than in Pennsylvania, differences that are superficially limited by their Help explain the strong performance. Midwestern states.

His deficit against Trump on confidence in his handling of the economy – a perennial top election issue and Trump's strength throughout the 2024 campaign – is more modest in those states: only 4 points in Michigan and 3 points in Wisconsin separate the two, Differences that are within the margin of sampling error in each survey. In contrast, Harris is 8 points behind Trump on this issue in Pennsylvania. Harris has an 8-point lead over Trump in terms of trust to protect democracy in Michigan and Wisconsin, while her margin in Pennsylvania is a paltry 4 points.

Likely voters in Michigan and Wisconsin also give Harris a relatively wide advantage on the perception that she is more honest and trustworthy: She leads Trump on this trait by 17 points in Wisconsin and 16 points in Michigan, while leading by 7 points in Pennsylvania. There is a difference. And voters in Michigan and Wisconsin also say Harris is the candidate who puts the country's interests above her own: Wisconsin likely voters say that by a 10-point margin and Michigan likely voters say that by 8 points. By a difference of. In Pennsylvania, this is an issue where likely voters are almost evenly divided (46% Harris to 45% Trump).

These voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are more likely than Pennsylvania voters to say Harris cares about people like them, a 9-point difference in the upper Midwestern states, while only a 3-point difference in Pennsylvania.

In each of the three states, the percentage of likely voters who say they are supporting Harris exceeds the percentage who say she shares her vision for America, while Trump's overall support on this question More closely matches their stance. This may indicate that some voters are supporting Harris not because of enthusiasm for her platform but because of concerns about Trump's character.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, majorities of voters who say leadership qualities outweigh issues in their votes are supporting Harris. And in every state, nearly 4 in 10 of his supporters say they are more likely to vote to oppose Trump than to support him, which is higher than the percentage of Trump voters who say they are primarily Casting their vote against Harris.

Harris's narrow leads in Michigan and Wisconsin are driven by her relatively strong showing among white voters and white voters without college degrees, two groups that traditionally skew Republican. White voters in both states are almost evenly divided (48% Trump to 44% Harris in Michigan, and 48% in Wisconsin, which has a larger white population than the other two states). Trump's gap among white voters without a college degree in those two states lags his gap with the same group in Pennsylvania (Trump leads by 54% to 37% in Michigan, 54% to 43% in Wisconsin, and 61% in Pennsylvania). Are ahead by 34%).

Harris holds a wider lead among black voters in Pennsylvania (76% Harris vs. 21% Trump) than in Michigan (83% Harris vs. 12% Trump). In all three states he has significant advantages among likely voters who have a college degree (59% to 36% in Wisconsin, 56% to 36% in Michigan, and 59% to 37% in Pennsylvania).

The tight competition in Pennsylvania is reflected among the state's urban and rural voters: Harris's lead among likely voters who say they live in urban areas of Pennsylvania (53% to 38%), Michigan (61% to 31% ) is much lower than. %) or Wisconsin (70% to 28%), while Trump's lead among rural likely voters is largest in the Keystone State (68% to 30%, compared to 61% to 31% in Wisconsin and 56% to 35% in Michigan). Is) .

Suburban likely voters, however, largely favored Harris in all three states (55% to 40% in Pennsylvania, 52% to 40% in Michigan, and 51% to 45% in Wisconsin). The suburban vote represents nearly half of potential voters in Pennsylvania, compared to 37% in Michigan and 28% in Wisconsin.

There are competitive Senate races in all three states for seats that Democrats are defending. Surveys have found tough competition between the three. Michigan Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin leads Republican former Representative Mike Rogers among likely voters, 48% to 42%. Democratic Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania has 48% support to Republican Dave McCormick's 45% in a race with no clear leader. And in Wisconsin, there is also no clear leader in the Senate race, with Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin having 49% support to Republican Eric Hovde's 47%.

Compared to Southern and Western battleground states, blue wall states have less of a history of voting early or by mail, and only a third or less of voters in all three say they have already voted. In Michigan, 36% of likely voters say they have either mailed a ballot or voted early, compared to 34% in Wisconsin and 26% in Pennsylvania. This is the first presidential election in which in-person early voting has taken place in Michigan, and turnout increased in the first few days of statewide early voting over the weekend.

Those who say they have already voted comprise the majority of likely voters in each poll, and in all three states they overwhelmingly favor Harris (61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 60% in Wisconsin). % to 38% and 57% to 40%) in Pennsylvania. Should those Pennsylvania figures hold, they would reflect a significant shift in Trump's favor compared to ballots cast by mail in the 2020 election: Biden received 76% of those votes over Trump, according to the state's election results. Reached 23%.

Three-quarters or more of likely voters in each of the three states surveyed say they are at least somewhat confident that votes will be accurately cast and counted in their state in this year's election. About 95% or more of Harris supporters in each state express confidence, while about 6 in 10 Trump supporters in each state express confidence.

Interviews were conducted online and by telephone with registered voters October 23–28, 2024, including 726 voters in Michigan, 819 in Pennsylvania, and 736 in Wisconsin. Likely voters include all registered voters based on their estimated probability of voting in this year's election. The results among likely voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points; It stands at 4.8 points among likely voters in Wisconsin.


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