As the United States enters the summer season, early indicators suggest that COVID-19 infections are likely to increase in the country.
For the week ending June 8, the latest for which data is available, Covid test positivity across the US was 5.4%, an increase of 0.8% from the previous week, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
In the Western region — which includes Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada — COVID test positivity was 12.8%, higher than any other region in the U.S. The New England region — which is made up of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont — had the highest test positivity rate at 5.4%, matching the national rate.
Wastewater data from the CDC shows that while virus activity levels are still low nationally, levels in the western U.S. have more than doubled over the past month.
Additionally, according to CDC data, the number of COVID emergency department visits during the week ending June 8 increased 12.6% compared to the previous week.
Traditionally, the U.S. sees a surge in COVID-19 cases each summer, typically after July 4, but public health experts said Americans will likely see an “upward trickle” rather than a surge.
“To put it in terms of where we were in several winters, we're at a much lower rate of COVID than we were at some of our peaks,” Dr. Cameron Wolfe, a professor of medicine in the infectious disease division at Duke University, told ABC News. “Compared to, for example, early 2022, when Omicron first came out, it's night and day different. But … it's probably trending up a little bit in the last couple of weeks.”
Several states have seen a surge in cases, particularly on the West Coast. In Los Angeles, the county's public health department reported an average of 121 cases per day on June 13, down from 106 a week earlier.
However, experts said the combination of learning how to better manage the virus and high levels of immunity meant COVID would not be a major threat to the average person.
“Over the last four years, our bodies have learned to handle the virus, which means that many people have had successive waves of infection, many people have had early vaccine shots,” Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a professor of medicine and infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, told ABC News. “So this combined immunity provides a big force field that can help protect us through the summer. … Although most people will recover, there are still some people who are going to get very sick.”
As of Tuesday, the number of hospitalizations and deaths in the US has remained stable. In the week ending May 18, which is the last week of complete data, there were 311 deaths due to Covid, which is the lowest death toll recorded in the US since the start of the pandemic.
Chin-Hong said most hospitalizations and deaths are occurring in high-risk groups, including elderly individuals aged 75 and older and people with weakened immune systems, such as those who have received organ transplants or those taking medications that suppress the immune system.
He advised the public to keep an eye on COVID wastewater data from the CDC to see if there is a growing outbreak in their area and to keep masks and COVID rapid tests on hand if needed, but he also said there is no need to panic about the rise in COVID cases.
“I think there's a fine balance between ignoring everything and being afraid of everything,” Chin-Hong said. “It's like you're crossing the street. You never cross a busy street; you always look both ways, but that doesn't mean you don't go to the next destination. So, I think that's the way we should think about it in this new phase of COVID.”
Likewise, Wolf said people should assess their personal risk and take more precautions if they will be around high-risk individuals such as seniors or sick patients. He also recommended getting the latest updated COVID vaccine, which will likely be rolled out in late September.
“Just like the way the flu vaccine is rolled out every year, that's what's happening with COVID,” Wolf said. “And I think people who are at higher risk, either themselves or their families or close contacts, I would actively encourage them to get vaccinated.”