The best severe storm forecast models have a strong trend toward a significant line of severe storms. This line of storms is moving north and is now forecast to impact much of lower Michigan during the morning hours.
Check out the latest radar forecast from the high resolution model that knows the best way to forecast storms. I've been watching this model run hourly. Over the last 12 hours it has moved the line of storms northward. Now the severe line of storms looks like it could extend from the Petoskey area southward along the entire shoreline of Lake Michigan. Storms could combine together to form severe storms as far inland as US 127.
Here's the radar forecast from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, a model that can predict how storms may develop.
The line of severe storms could be in Traverse City, Frankfort, Manistee and Ludington between 4 and 6 a.m. The line of severe storms is then forecast to move southeastward across Lower Michigan between 6 and 10 a.m. The line of storms could weaken after 9 a.m.
A line of storms like this can create a significant straight-line wind. As a rough estimate, this line of storms can have wind gusts of up to 70 mph.
These storms will likely be at their strongest when they come ashore along Lake Michigan. They could also be severe when they pass through Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Mount Pleasant, Saginaw, Bay City and Flint. They could drop below severe levels when they reach the far southeastern portion of Lower Michigan, including Ann Arbor and Detroit.
To know if the model's forecast is correct, we look at what is happening right now and what the model's forecast says should happen right now. The models now say that a cluster of severe storms will develop in the far northwest of Wisconsin. This is actually happening right now. It is significant that a cluster of severe storms can develop so late at night. This means they could eventually become quite severe.
Here's the always-updated radar. Models have forecast a swarm of storms heading into the Chicago area. You can just barely see a new swarm of storms forming in the very northwest corner of Wisconsin. These will be the most severe storms for the morning's severe weather in Michigan.
If you have anything that might be affected by the wind you should secure it before you go to sleep.
Be prepared for a potentially very stormy sunrise along the west and northwest Lower Michigan coastline. It could become very stormy further inland during the first part of Tuesday morning.
Stay updated on the weather here.