Hurricane Barrel Live Updates: The storm passes the Cayman Islands on its way to Mexico


In another dire warning about the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted on Thursday that the Atlantic could see 17 to 25 named tropical storms this year. So far, May has predicted the highest.

NOAA's forecast is among more than a dozen other recent projections from experts at universities, private companies and other government agencies that predict the possibility of 14 or more named storms this season. Many were calling for more than 20.

NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said at a news conference Thursday morning that the agency's forecasters believe eight to 13 of the named storms could become hurricanes, meaning they have winds of at least 74 mph. Winds blowing from They can include four to seven major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher — with winds of at least 111 mph.

Debris from Hurricane Adelia left Florida's Big Bend area last August. Idalia was one of the most powerful storms of 2023.credit…Zach Whitman for The New York Times

According to NOAA, one is 85. Percentage of above-normal weather and 10 percent chance of near-normal weather 5 percent chance of below normal weather. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Although it only takes one hurricane in a below-average season to devastate a community, conditions favorable for nearly twice the average amount of hurricanes make it more likely that North America will experience a tropical storm or the like. Worse than that, will experience a major hurricane.

The official list of hurricane names this year has 21 entries from Alberto to William. If that list runs out, the National Weather Service moves to an alternate list of names, something it has had to do only twice in its history.

A scene of the devastation after Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers Beach, Florida in 2022.credit…Damon Winter / The New York Times

NOAA typically releases a May forecast and then an updated forecast in August. Before Thursday, NOAA's most significant May forecast was in 2010, when it predicted 14 to 23 named storms. This year, 19 were finally formed before the end of the season. In 2020, the May forecast was for 13 to 19 named storms, but a more recent forecast for August was even higher, with 19 to 25 named storms. This season eventually saw 30 named storms.

The hurricane scene this year has been remarkably aggressive because of its unpredictable nature.

As forecasters look toward the official start of the season on June 1, they see a combination of conditions that never appeared in records dating back to the mid-1800s: warmer Atlantic water temperatures and La Niña. Possible formation of seasonal patterns.

Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami who specializes in hurricane formation, said that without any previous precedents involving such conditions, forecasters are trying to predict the coming season. Ones can only grow from previous ones.

Experts are concerned about warmer ocean temperatures.

“I think all systems are going for a very active season,” said Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University.

The main area of ​​the Atlantic where the hurricane season begins is unusually warm. Benjamin Kurtman, a professor of ecology at the University of Miami, previously called the conditions “unprecedented,” “dangerous” and “out of bounds.”

These temperatures have gradually increased over the past century. But last year, with an intensity that unnerved climate scientists, the waters in the region of the Atlantic where most hurricanes form warmed even faster. The region, from West Africa to Central America, is warmer this year than it was before the start of last year's hurricane season, which produced 20 named storms.

Current temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are concerning because they mean the ocean is ready to provide additional fuel for any storm. Even if the surface cools suddenly, subsurface temperatures, which are significantly higher than average, are expected to quickly rewarm the surface temperature.

These warm temperatures can fuel the formation of storms—and help sustain them. Sometimes, if no other atmospheric conditions impede storm development, they can intensify faster than usual, jumping up the hurricane categories in less than a day.

Combined with an El Niño weather pattern that subsides sharply in early May, the temperatures are leading to growing confidence among forecasters that an unusually high number of storms will occur this hurricane season. will come

A decoupling El Nino and possibly La Nina are increasing confidence in forecasts.

El Nino is caused by changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather patterns globally. When it is strong, it usually prevents the growth and development of storms. Last year, warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic overcame El Niño's influence to do just that. If El Nino abates, as forecasters expect, there won't be much to end the season this time around.

Forecasters who specialize in El Niño climate and flow, including Michelle L. Heureux with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, are fairly confident not only that El Niño will weaken but that There is a very high probability – 77 percent – that La Nina forms during the peak of the hurricane season.

The system can throw a curveball, he said, but at this point in the spring, things are shaping up as forecasters expected. A La Nina weather pattern will already see them heading for an above-average year. The possibility of La Niña combined with record sea surface temperatures this hurricane season is expected to create a strong environment for storms to form and intensify this year.

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