Hurricane Barrel Shapes: Major Caribbean Threat Ahead


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  • Beryl is now a Category 1 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.
  • Barrel is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
  • After that, its future in the rest of the Caribbean is uncertain next week.
  • There are two more systems we are seeing in a busy pattern in late June.

Hurricane Beryl is rapidly strengthening in the mid-Atlantic and poses a major hurricane threat to the Windward Islands, but then faces an uncertain future in the Caribbean as we head into the busy end of June pattern with two other hurricanes. Also track systems.

current situation: Barrel now has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, making it the first hurricane of the season. The barrel is centered more than 700 miles east of the Windward Islands. It is moving rapidly westward over the open waters of the central Atlantic. The barrel has intensified rapidly since becoming a tropical depression on Friday.

Barrel is the easternmost hurricane to form in the tropical Atlantic during the month of June, breaking a 90+ year old record.

The first hurricane of the season usually forms around August 11, according to the National Hurricane Center, which uses averages from 1991-2020.

Windward Islands Threat: The barrel will likely continue to intensify rapidly on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center's latest forecast, shown below, expects Barrell to become the season's first Category 3 or stronger hurricane with record-warming waters in late June before it Flooding rain, storm surge and damaging winds will move over the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday. .

(More: What a forecast cone means, and what it doesn't.)

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Current situation and forecast path

(The red shaded area indicates the likely path of the tropical cyclone's center. It is important to note that the effects of any tropical cyclone (especially heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) usually precede it. spread beyond the goi's path.)

Those interested in the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Martinique, should stay updated on this storm forecast and have their hurricane plans ready.

A hurricane warning has been issued for Barbados, where tropical storm conditions are expected to hit the islands by Sunday afternoon and hurricane conditions are expected by late Sunday.

A hurricane watch has been issued for St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada. Tropical storm conditions could reach the islands by late Sunday and hurricane conditions are possible by early Monday.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for Dominica, Martinique and Tobago.

You can find a map of the latest watches and warnings here. Additional watches and warnings are likely to be issued soon for other locations.

Barrel's Uncertain Caribbean Future: The barrel will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday.

We then expect it to take a general west-northwest track in the Caribbean Sea by the fourth week of July. In general, if the barrel remains strong it may track a little farther north in the Caribbean Sea. If it is weak, its tendency will be towards south. This uncertainty is reflected in the model forecast track map below.

hurr beryl modelshurr beryl models
(The lines on this graphic represent several track predictions from various computer models. These are not official predictions, but are used as a guide to create a predicted path.)

One reason for this uncertainty is how much wind shear barrels will experience in the Caribbean Sea. Typically at this time of year, the Caribbean wind shear is strong enough to weaken or completely disrupt tropical systems coming in from the east. However, some model predictions indicated that wind shear may be lower than normal, allowing the barrel to survive longer than normal.

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Model forecast wind shear

(The area of ​​wind shear, the variation in wind speed and direction with height, is shown in purple, as predicted by the European forecast model. Strong wind shear for mature tropical cyclones and those attempting to develop (The future system is highlighted with an arrow and a circle).

bottom line: It is too early to determine where the barrel may go in the western half of the Caribbean next weekend. All interests around the Caribbean should closely monitor the barrel forecast over the next several days.

It's also too early to tell whether the barrel will eventually threaten any part of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Again, check back with us at weather.com for forecast updates in the coming days.

We're not just looking at: There are two other tropical barriers in the Atlantic basin, as shown in the map below.

A system in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of developing next week. It will remain over the open ocean until nearing the Windward Islands by the middle of next week. It could follow Hurricane Barrel in a few days.

Another system near Mexico, Invest 94L, also has a medium chance of developing after emerging in the Gulf of Campeche or southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week before moving into eastern Mexico early next week. be done

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(According to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook, potential areas of tropical development are shown by polygons, color-coded according to the likelihood of development over the next seven days. An “X” indicates the location of an existing disturbance. does.)

Risk of heavy rain: Regardless of development, Invest 94L could dump locally heavy rain from parts of Central America to southern and eastern Mexico. Localized flooding and landslides are possible, especially in high-altitude areas.

Some growing storm surges, rip currents and coastal flooding are also possible along parts of the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas on Sunday through at least early Monday.

(Enhance your forecast further with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – available only on our Premium Pro Experience.)

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Rain Outlook

(This should be interpreted as a broad view of where the heaviest rain may occur and may change based on the forecast path of the tropical system. Where rain bands stop for a few hours, more can be quantity.)

The tropical Atlantic developed as recently as last year in June. As senior meteorologist Chris Dulles discussed, tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles where the barrel is located in June is unusual, but has occurred in recent years, including 2023.

Last June, Tropical Storm Brett, then Cindy, each developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in less than a week. It was the first time on record that two tropical cyclones formed east of the Lesser Antilles (East of the Caribbean Islands) during the month.

Bonnie first became a tropical storm east of Trinidad and Tobago in late June 2022 before moving through the rest of the southern Caribbean Sea, then later becoming an eastern Pacific hurricane.

In late June 2021, what would later become Hurricane Elsa became a tropical storm at about the same point as Bonnie in 2022.

late june 2023 trackslate june 2023 tracks

Check back with us on Weather.com for updates on this forecast as details become clearer in the coming days.

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