India and US inflation, 10 things in focus in ECB financial stability review

Nifty 50 and Sensex fell by about 3 per cent last week as a result of heavy selling by FIIs (foreign institutional investors). The market is expected to strengthen during the coming week due to Lok Sabha elections and inflation commentary from the US and India.

During the week, volatility remained elevated with India VIX at a 52-week high of 18.5. “The fourth phase of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections will be held on Monday, May 13, and may add some volatility. Overall, we expect the market to be broad-based and take cues from Q4 results, global factors and news flows General elections,” said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

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On Wednesday, participants will keep an eye on US inflation data.

Here are the key things to watch this week:

corporate earnings

More than 200 companies will declare their results next week. Prominent among them are Zomato, Inox India, Varun Beverages, Bharti Airtel, PVR Inox, Radico Khaitan, Edelweiss Financial Services, Andhra Cement, Mankind Pharma, Power Finance Corporation, RVNL, Titagra Rail Vikas Nigam and Kaukyo Camlin.

primary market action

In the mainboard IPO, Go Digit General Insurance will open for subscription on May 15 and close on May 17. Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd and TBO Tech Ltd will be listed on the exchanges on May 15. Indgene Ltd will list on the exchanges on May 13.

On the SME side, Rulka Electricals Limited will open for subscription on May 16 and close on May 21. Quest Laboratories Limited will open for subscription on May 15 and close on May 17. Indian Emulsifiers Limited will open for subscription on May 13 and close on May 21. 16 May.

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crude oil

Brent crude prices rose to $82.79 per barrel mainly due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, indicating tight oil supplies. “Additionally, expectations that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later in the year contributed to a more optimistic outlook for energy demand,” said Mahavir Lunawat, managing director at Pentomath Capital Advisors Pvt Ltd, which helped boost oil prices. “The rise in prices was supported.”

FII/DII data

In the past week, FIIs sold shares worth about Rs 82,800 crore in the cash segment, while DIIs sold equities worth about Rs 52,152 crore. On the other hand, FIIs bought equities worth around Rs 61,264 crore, and DIIs bought equities worth around Rs 69,354 crore. Heavy FII selling and concerns over the outcome of the ongoing general elections have added to the overall pressure in the market, Khemka said.


The Street will focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers released by the Office for National Statistics on May 13, In March, India's CPI rose 4.9 percent year-on-year. Vikram Cassatt, head of advisory at Prabhudas Lilladher, said, “We believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will wait until inflation reaches the target range of 4 per cent, before considering any rate cut. Will remain in a do-and-see situation.” ,

US inflation

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Traders will also turn their attention to US CPI data for April, due on Wednesday. During last week's meeting, the Fed signaled a less dovish stance than expected, with Chairman Jerome Powell ruling out raising rates and indicating they were still leaning toward a cut.

global signal

The European Central Bank (ECB) will conduct its financial stability review on Thursday, when Japan will also announce preliminary estimates for its Q1 24 GDP.

technical approach

Given the continuous selling in the last few sessions and the formation of an inside bar candlestick pattern on the daily chart, Nifty 50 may extend last Friday's recovery in the coming sessions. But looking at the large bearish candlestick pattern with lower high formation on the weekly time frame, the overall trend in the coming week is expected to be in favor of bearish, unless the index sees a decisive close above 22,300 and for a few days Stay on top of it. , experts said. Immediate support may lie at 21,900 and important support may lie at 21,700.

“Thursday's low coincides with 89 EMA at 21,900, which acts as immediate support, followed by previous swing low in the 21,800 – 21,700 range,” said Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One.

On the positive side, he thinks the area between the 20 and 50 EMAs, around 22,200 – 22,300, presents a formidable obstacle. Traders are urged to monitor these levels closely and adjust their trading strategies accordingly, he advised.

F&O signal

Options data indicates that the coming week is expected to hold 22,500 key resistance zone for Nifty 50, with key support at 21,500 levels.

On the weekly options front, maximum call open interest was seen at 23,000 strike, followed by 22,500 and 22,800 strike, maximum call writing was seen at 22,800 strike, then 22,500 and 22,900 strike. On the Put side, maximum open interest was seen at 21,000 strike, followed by 22,000 and 21,500 strike, maximum writing was seen at 21,000 strike, then 22,000 and 21,600 strike.

Bulls are now in an uncomfortable position as volatility has continued its northward journey for 12 consecutive days. India VIX, the fear index, jumped 26 percent over the past week, and has risen more than 81 percent in the past 12 days.

corporate action

Godrej Consumer Products has set the record date for its Rs 10 interim dividend as May 14. Hindustan Zinc has set the record date for its Rs 10 interim dividend as May 15. Record date set for Tata Consultancy Services' final dividend of Rs 28. Scheduled for May 16. Solara Active Pharma will conduct a rights issue of equity shares on May 15.

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