Israel has launched a heavy attack on Hezbollah. The victory he seeks may prove elusive.

It has been done. A disastrous week For Hezbollah and the people of Lebanon.

Bombs hidden in the group Pagers and Walkie Talkies Dozens of people were killed and thousands were injured, most of them members of Hezbollah. Killed in an Israeli attack on Beirut. Two top Hezbollah commanders. And Israel has bombed 1,600 militant positions in large parts of Lebanon. Killing hundreds of people and displacing thousands.

Israel says its goal is to secure the border so that tens of thousands of people He ran away under the fire of Hezbollah. They can return to their homes almost a year ago. But it is not clear that his recent operations – as tactically successful as they have been – will accomplish this.

Columnist Nadav Eyal wrote in Israel's Yediot Ahronot newspaper, “No one inside or outside the defense establishment seems to know how to translate these spectacular operational successes into political advantage, into a real victory in the war in the north.” Stop it,'' .

“As long as Hezbollah retains any firepower, the northern border cannot return to normal.”

The day after the October 7 attack by Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah opened fire on Israel. Its stated aim was to prevent Israeli forces in the north from supporting its ally Hamas, which – like Hezbollah – is backed by Iran. The Lebanese militant group has said it will stop attacks if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Which doesn't seem very likely.

Hezbollah's response to last week's escalation appears to be minimal. The hundreds of rockets and drones it has fired into northern Israel — including areas it hit earlier were far from the border — have caused few casualties and only scattered damage.

Militant Launched a long-range missile. Early Wednesday that hit Tel Aviv for the first time, there was a marked increase. The Israeli military says it intercepted the missile and there were no reports of casualties or property damage.

Experts say that Hezbollah has more such weapons.

Israeli air power has its limitations.

Footage of the Israeli strikes on Monday, billowing clouds of dust and smoke, looked all too familiar.

The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, NATO's campaign in Libya in 2011, and the US-led war against the Islamic State group in 2014 all began with massive airstrikes that lit up the skies. In each case, the war lasted months or years, and ground forces played an important role.

Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza began with nearly three weeks of intense airstrikes across the territory, followed by a full-scale ground offensive. Almost a year later, Hamas is still fighting and holding several hostages.

With Hezbollah, Israel has so far pursued limited goals — not the disarmament or defeat of the Lebanese militant group, but a new arrangement in which the militants withdraw from the border and stop their attacks.

But this is also not possible without ground attack.

There is also the risk of mission collapse, as the United States discovered after years of its own wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after the fall of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban. The NATO airstrikes were initially aimed at preventing a horrific massacre in Benghazi that turned into a seven-month regime change campaign. From which Libya has not yet fully recovered..

Hezbollah probably has capabilities that we haven't seen yet.

Israeli Defense Minister Yves Gallant boasted that tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and missiles were shot down in Monday's strikes alone.

He added that this is the most difficult week since the establishment of Hezbollah. “A blow has hit the chain of command, the terrorists themselves at various levels, their shooting capabilities and their morale.”

Hezbollah has admitted a serious setback, but if Gallant's assessment is correct, it still has plenty of resources.

“The rocket unit is still active, Hezbollah has absorbed the initial shock, and the war has just begun,” said Qasim Qasim, a former Hezbollah member who has written a book about the group. Hezbollah has used only a small part of its capabilities.

This militant group was formed with the help of Iran after the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982 and seeks the destruction of Israel. It has survived countless battles with Israeli forces, replaced several slain commanders over the years, and rearmed in 2006 after a month-long war.

Hezbollah claims to have 100,000 fighters. Before the latest hostilities, it was believed to have about 150,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range projectiles capable of hitting anywhere inside Israel, and some precision-guided munitions. There were also missiles.

Its more advanced weapons are likely being held in reserve as it tries to avoid starting an all-out war.

Sarit Zahawi, a former Israeli military intelligence analyst and founder of the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank that focuses on the northern border, said Hezbollah has hidden its weapons in various parts of the country, including near Beirut. A strong presence.

“Hezbollah was creating redundancy, so they spread their weapons and infrastructure everywhere, and that's why so many targets are being attacked, because it's everywhere,” he said.

Hezbollah is more advanced militarily than Hamas. Hezbollah also has a much larger area to operate, extensive supply lines connecting it directly to Iran, and tunnel networks possibly more extensive than in Gaza.

In the event of a ground attack, Hezbollah fighters may also be involved. Thousands of warriors Iran-backed groups from Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere in the region.

Neither side has good options.

Israel says it has no immediate plans for a ground attack but is prepared for one, and has sent thousands of fighters from Gaza to the northern border. If the air campaign fails to contain Hezbollah, Israeli leaders will be tempted to send them in.

Even if the goal is simply to create a buffer zone to better protect the North, the stakes are high.

Most Israelis are protected from the air war by distance and Israel's missile defense system, but a ground attack would mean more casualties and a longer battle for soldiers and reservists already exhausted by a year of war in Gaza.

Hezbollah waged an 18-year-long insurgency against Israel the last time it occupied Lebanon, eventually forcing it to withdraw, and another prolonged occupation could be just as costly.

Israel is already facing international outrage over the Gaza war, including an ongoing investigation by the High international courtsAnd launching such a campaign in Lebanon risks even greater isolation.

Hezbollah also has some good options.

A halt to its rocket fire in the north in the face of Israeli pressure will be seen by its supporters – and its patron Iran – as a humiliating appeasement and abandonment of the Palestinians.

Escalating its attacks, either by launching more sophisticated rockets or targeting major cities such as Tel Aviv, could lead to an even more crushing Israeli response or an all-out war that would devastate Lebanon – in which Hezbollah There is a risk of being blamed.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is already facing criticism from many Lebanese who accuse him of tying his country's fate to Iran and simultaneously inviting war. of financial ruin.

This leaves it stuck with the status quo, with Israel launching heavy attacks quickly while Hezbollah reacts with a relatively restrained response.

For Hezbollah and the Lebanese people, this could make the coming weeks even worse.

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Associated Press reporters Melanie Ludman in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Basim Maro in Beirut contributed to this report.