Israel retaliates in Gaza, warns of protracted war: LIVE UPDATES


Saturday’s attack by Hamas caught Israeli intelligence officials by surprise, especially according to a senior defense official familiar with the information gathered about the group, which militants used to enter and leave Israel. methods.

The massive offensive, largely successful from Hamas’ perspective, reveals some of the key failings of the Israeli defense establishment. It could also change Israel’s overall strategic approach to Hamas and the Gaza Strip, said the official, who asked not to be identified while discussing security matters.

And it could have far-reaching effects on the entire Middle East.

Until now, Israel has engaged Hamas and Gaza with a strategy that depends on an intelligence network to warn against Hamas moves, and the Israeli military to repel a Hamas ground offensive. is on power. Both of these security measures failed in Saturday’s attack by Hamas.

Israel is traditionally regarded as the strongest intelligence power in the region with extensive coverage of the Gaza Strip. And in recent months, Israeli intelligence has repeatedly warned that a military conflict could erupt as Iran and allied militias deepen the country’s divisions over judicial reforms by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right governing coalition. Because of this, Israel is considered weak. According to four senior defense officials.

Still, while Israeli intelligence gathered some indications that Hamas was planning a major operation, they were far from painting a clear picture, one official added.

The official said Israel did not consider the extensive preparations that 250 Hamas militants might have needed to lead the attack and target military bases, cities and kibbutzim.

U.S. officials also said that both Israel and the U.S. knew that a Hamas attack was possible, or even likely, at some point. But he said there was no specific tactical warning about Saturday’s attacks, no signal that would have given Israel permission to take specific actions.

Many people questioned why Israel and the US turned a blind eye. Mick Mulroy, a former CIA officer and senior Pentagon official, said the complexity of a Hamas attack indicated it would require a lot of preparation.

“There were indications of possible munitions preparation and attack force preparation, and there was cyber activity in Israel prior to the attack,” Mr Milroy said.

Since the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Hamas has transformed from a militant organization to a regional leader with many of the characteristics of a state. The group has launched rounds of fighting with Israel every few years, usually lasting no more than a week. These attacks include firing rockets at Israeli cities and attempting to kidnap or kill Israelis. But nothing as widespread as Saturday’s attack.

For its part, Israel has over the years responded with its massive firepower, usually by air, against targets in Gaza and attempted to kill the organization’s top officials. But it has launched very limited ground maneuvers.

Israel’s strategy has been to hold off on fighting the militants in the Gaza Strip, unless Israeli casualties are too high, which would force it to launch a full-scale ground offensive.

Four successive Israeli prime ministers decided that the cost of invading and occupying the Gaza Strip to crush the rule of Hamas would be too high, in Israeli soldiers and Palestinian lives, and in the lives of millions of residents there. The tool to do it will be very expensive.

Israel continued to operate this way even though it knew that both Hamas and Palestinian Jihad received funding, training, weapons and advanced military and intelligence equipment from Iran, the three officials said, and that the militant groups were strengthening. are

The surprise attack on Israel came nearly 50 years after the start of the Yom Kippur War, which began with a surprise attack by Syrian tank columns and Egyptian brigades. This made it even more surprising that Israel was not more careful.

The defense official said it was likely not a coincidence but a careful choice by Hamas to choose a date perceived as a national shock. Intelligence surprise, as well as Hamas’s ability to cross the border and inflict heavy damage, are reminiscent of the 1973 war.

Israel has devoted enormous resources to obtaining intelligence on Hamas, gathering critical information about most of its actions, and targeting many of its leaders.

But Saturday was not the first time Hamas managed to surprise Israeli intelligence. When a Hamas unit entered Israel in June 2006, attacked a group of soldiers, killed two, and kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit, Israeli intelligence did not know about the attack, or that Shalit had five Where was it kept for more than a year? Israel ultimately paid the highest price it had ever paid to secure a POW.

The deal has sparked intense controversy within Israel, which could flare up again with reports that dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians have been captured.

The Israeli Defense Forces, although aware of the possibility of a ground attack by Hamas to capture military bases and civilians on the border, were slow to arrive at scenes of violence. Many residents were forced to defend themselves.

Videos taken by Hamas during the operation, which were quickly distributed on social media, weakened, shocked and humiliated the Israeli defense establishment.

Israel will now respond with force, and possibly with a ground attack on Gaza, in the belief that Hamas has left no way out, a senior defense official said.

A key question, which will determine how the crisis unfolds, is whether the Lebanese military group Hezbollah stays on the sidelines or mobilizes its fighters to attack Israel. If Hezbollah joins the fighting directly, it is likely to become the most intense in the region in years.

Julian Barnes Collaborated in Washington.

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