A health official warns that Marin County is expected to see a surge in COVID-19 infections this summer.
Dr. Lisa Santora, the county's deputy public health officer, predicts this trend based on COVID-contaminated wastewater and coronavirus hospitalizations. She said the heat wave could also be a factor.
“The good thing is that more time can now be spent outside, but because of the heat wave we expect more people to spend time inside, in closed spaces, with air conditioning and without opening doors or windows,” Santora said Wednesday.
He said his staff generally recommends outdoor activities to prevent the spread of the virus.
“COVID doesn’t like fresh air, that’s been proven since we entered our reality in 2020,” Santora said.
He mentioned some reports of coronavirus in the community.
“A lot of people are getting exposed to COVID, in general we're seeing a large portion of that is associated with travel,” Santora said. “COVID is actively spreading in our community.”
Since public health agencies have stopped publishing the number of COVID-19 cases reported each day, local health officials like Santora look at coronavirus levels measured at wastewater sites, which could warn of an upcoming surge in the virus.
As of June 28, Marin County had a “moderate” coronavirus level based on test results from six wastewater sites and a seven-day average of seven patients hospitalized for the disease. Hospitalizations have declined slightly from the nine patients reported on June 11, according to county data.
The Marin County Department of Health and Human Services measures COVID-19 concentrations in wastewater by gene copies in millimeters. On June 25, it reported a measurement of 238.1, down from the 347.6 reported on June 16. This year, the lowest coronavirus contamination level was 50.1 on April 27, while the highest was 417.4 on February 4.
The county’s next update on COVID-19 wastewater and hospitalization levels will be released Friday.
For the county’s coronavirus level to be rated “high,” there needs to be a wastewater concentration of at least 492.93 and a seven-day average of more than 35 hospital patients suffering from the disease, according to county health staff thresholds.
There have been 12 coronavirus-related deaths in the county this year, Santora said. There have been more than 370 deaths in the county since the pandemic began.
Dr. John Swartzberg, emeritus clinical professor at the University of California, Berkeley School of Public Health, has seen an increase in COVID activity in the Bay Area over the past month but said metrics for the virus remain lower than they were last year.
“It's nothing like we're getting closer to winter, it's not even as high as it was on this date a year ago,” he said last month.
Marin County public health staff is now monitoring the spread of the KP.2 variant of the coronavirus.
“This reflects increased transmissibility, and we've seen a pretty rapid increase locally, across the state and across the country since March,” Santora said.
Last month, Marin County’s public health newsletter announced that KP.2 is closely related to the JN.1 variant, which is expected to be targeted by a new vaccine to be released next month.
A concern for Santora is that the county’s large elderly population may be more vulnerable to the virus.
“They are more likely to have severe illness and are at higher risk of being hospitalized,” he said. “If we have a higher number of COVID cases in our community and a higher proportion of residents are over 65, we would expect to see an increase in hospitalizations.”
In the county’s latest coronavirus report, 10 infections were reported in long-term care centers and congregate living facilities.
Santora said people who show COVID symptoms are advised to get tested and stay home if they become ill with the virus. They are also asked to self-isolate until they feel better and wear a mask when they return to work and until they test negative.
Santora said isolation recommendations have been relaxed. Previously, coronavirus patients were advised to isolate themselves for at least five days.
“People have immunity, people have been vaccinated, and we have treatments available,” Santora said.
The Bay Area News Group contributed to this report.