A pair of Russian BMP combat vehicles were knocked out near Vochansk.
Arrest of the Kriegsforscher
Five weeks after Russia's northern offensive into Ukraine, the battlefield in and around Vochansk, the site of fighting just south of the Russia-Ukraine border, has become extremely dangerous for Russian armored vehicles.
So Russian infantry marches into foot combat and die in large numbers as targets of Ukrainian drones and artillery.
It is not without reason that the Russian casualty rate—both wounded and killed—has increased this spring and summer. The total death toll may now exceed half a million. Ukraine's own casualties are few.
On the contrary, this bloodshed does not signal an imminent end to the wider war. The Kremlin recruits about 30,000 new soldiers per month through intensive training, enough to cause monthly losses.
So while a surprising number of Russians are being killed in Vochansk and other contested towns, the Russian military continues to replenish existing units and even create new units. “They are preparing new forces for future advances,” explained Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian Marine Corps drone operator who supports the Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade fighting in Vouchansk.
Vochansk was the first major target of Russia's northern offensive, which began on May 10 with simultaneous attacks on several locations along Ukraine's northern border with Russia. But Russia's northern army group, tens of thousands of troops strong, never passed the industrial city four miles south of the border.
Several Ukrainian brigades, including the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, raced north to meet the Russians. Rearmed with American munitions, the Ukrainians fought the Russians street by street, building by building, and halted their advance in late May.
Today, Vochansk is an infantry killing ground, and the Russians are mostly dying. “The Russians are only using infantry without armored vehicles,” wrote Kriegsforscher.
It's not as if the Russian military doesn't have vehicles well-suited to chaotic urban combat, like the US-made Strykers of Ukraine's 82nd Air Assault Brigade. The Russian BTR-82 wheeled armored personnel carriers are largely similar to the wheeled Strykers, though less sophisticated.
Russia has armored vehicles that are great for urban combat (at least [medical] evacuation),” noted Kriegsforscher. “But they don't.”
Kriegsforscher wrote, “Their choice to use unarmored infantry is strange. Indeed, it makes perverse sense—especially for Russian commanders who do not value the lives of their soldiers.
In 28 months of intense fighting, Russia's military has lost nearly 4,000 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. That's about 150 destroyed Russian APCs and heavy IFVs, on average, Oryx analysts confirmed.
Ukrainian losses are few: around 1,000 APCs and IFVs since Russia widened its war against Ukraine in February 2022. That's about 30 vehicles a month.
The Russian casualty rate is increasing rapidly. With fresh shipments of US-made artillery shells, as well as expanded production of explosive first-person-view drones, Ukrainian brigades finally have the firepower they need to replace every Russian vehicle with their surveillance drones. need to attack—a big change from this spring, when Ukrainians often spotted Russian vehicles but had nothing to shoot at.
In May, Russian vehicle losses rose to a staggering 288 APCs and IFVs, according to Andrew Perpetu, an analyst who estimates vehicle losses in Ukraine. “It's only what we can see and count,” Perpetova stressed.
The problem for Russia is that its industry can only build, or regenerate, a thousand or so APCs and IFVs a year from long-term storage. That's a quarter of the vehicles the military will need in a year if it continues to lose them at its current rate.
It is clear that Russian commanders are under increasing pressure to protect their heavily armored vehicles. More Russian attack groups are riding on motorcycles or in all-terrain vehicles that are little better than heavy-duty golf carts. And these are the lucky bunch who don't own a car at all.
Even support units are parking their heavy vehicles, such as Kamaz trucks, in favor of ATVs. “In combat, delivery on Kamaz trucks is impossible – like other vehicles,” a Russian soldier noted in a video translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated.
Of course, ATVs are also vulnerable. In the video, the soldier points to an ATV with extensive damage — signs of a Ukrainian attack that he said killed three personnel in the vulnerable vehicle. But for many Russian commanders, losing a $19,000 ATV is better than losing a $100,000 Kamaz truck — or an APC or IFV.
IFV
And losing an infantry unit is better than losing. anyone Vehicles while pedestrians are plentiful and vehicles are becoming increasingly rare.
This lack of heavy vehicles may explain why a Russian infantry offensive in central Vochansk over the weekend ended with 400 Russians trapped in a chemical plant and bombed by the Ukrainian air force.
Another Ukrainian drone operator reported that “the Russians are surrounded here and have zero chance of evacuation or reinforcements” — possibly because the Russian military in Vochansk lacks heavy vehicles to support encircled troops. can reach Or, if he has vehicles, he is unwilling to risk them just to save a few hundred soldiers.
Sources:
1. Ukraine Pravda: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/31/7458530/
2. Kriegsforscher: https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1803091255045325144
3. Oryx: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
4. Andrew Perpetua: https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1786700159667110276
5. War Translated: https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1802979561937760465