If there's one lesson I hope we've all learned from these NBA playoffs, it's this: Can we keep our patience and wait a little while before immediately declaring anyone who has made it through a playoff round as the next guy?
In the first round, we thought the Denver Nuggets were inevitable after they defeated the Los Angeles Lakers.
In the second round, we thought Anthony Edwards would move on, as the Nuggets were eliminated by the Minnesota Timberwolves.
In the Conference Finals, we thought Luka Doncic was an enigma as the Dallas Mavericks swept Minnesota.
And in the NBA Finals, we learned that the Boston Celtics, the team that had the best record by far, were — surprise! — actually the best team of all time. Even though everyone thought they couldn't be trusted because of past playoff failures, an unproven coach, and a lack of an MVP-caliber focal point, Boston won 16 of 19 playoff games, despite missing one of its best players in 11 of them.
As we prepare for everything that comes next season, let’s let 2023-24 be a humbling lesson. The Celtics tried to tell us all year that they were great and, for whatever reason, everyone ignored the signs. The lack of a full-strength playoff foil in the Eastern Conference probably didn’t help; advancing through weak playoff opponents didn’t provide many chances for statement games.
Still, the Celtics went 80-21 in 101 games, a historic scoring margin, and were never seriously challenged in the playoffs. They are our sixth new defending champions in six years, but will almost certainly go into 2024-25 as the likely favorites to win again.
There's a good underlying reason behind this: Boston is in a very good position to withstand the worst consequences of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, at least for one more season. While it's becoming increasingly difficult to put together such a championship-level roster due to amendments to the 2023 agreement, Boston has set itself up for a multi-year run through smart contracts and timely trades, despite having two of the league's most expensive players at its core.
Looking ahead to 2024-25, the Celtics are in great form. Unlike other recent champions who lost their key players almost immediately — Bruce Brown to Denver, Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. to Golden State, P.J. Tucker to Milwaukee, Danny Green and Rajon Rondo to the Lakers and, of course, Kawhi Leonard to Toronto — the Celtics are ready to run it back.
All of Boston's rotation players are under contract for next season, with only reserve centers Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman Sr. and Nemias Queta and little-used guard Svi Mykhailiuk remaining free agents. Reserve forward Oshae Brissett has a player option on his minimum deal. Boston will also have a chance to add a cheap player with the 30th pick in the NBA draft.
I'm told the Celtics would like to bring back centers if the money is reasonable; still, Boston could easily fill out the back end of the roster with other minimum deals this offseason. The Celtics are in a position to be above the second apron and won't have any other tools, but they won't need them because every major player is signed. (Exception: If 38-year-old Al Horford rides off into the sunset after winning his first ring, they'll need another big man … but dropping his $9.5 million salary would move Boston below the second apron.)
Things get trickier when Boston has dynastic ambitions. The Celtics won’t be thinking about salary while they try to repeat in 2024-25, but after that, two elements of the CBA will punish them with increasing ferocity: the repeater tax and the second apron.
If Boston moves beyond the second apron in both 2024–25 and 2025–26, its two future draft picks will be frozen, and if it does not move below the second apron in each of the next three years, those picks will move to the end of the first round in 2032 and 2033, respectively.
Less discussed, but perhaps just as importantly, is that Boston will face a punitive repeater penalty in 2025-26. Starting that year, a team that was $22.5 million over the luxury-tax line would have to pay an estimated $100 million in tax and repeater penalties, which is nearly double what Boston would have to spend on the same salary structure as a non-repeater in 2024-25. Now together: Oh!
In addition, the repeater penalty surfaced as the Celtics rolled out massive extensions for tentpole stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown; Brown will begin a five-year deal worth an estimated $287 million next season, while Tatum will be eligible this summer for a five-year pact worth an estimated $315 million that begins in 2025-26. Exact figures won't be known until the 2024-25 cap number is established, but based on current league guidance, Tatum and Brown alone will together earn roughly $108 million in 2025-26.
Fortunately for Boston, free agency will take some time to do much of their roster. The Celtics are a contract extension team and have prepared themselves well for the coming era by locking up most of their best players. Six Celtics have signed extensions since coming to terms with Boston; Brown, Jrue Holiday and Payton Pritchard each have signed deals through 2028.
Hopefully this trend continues. In addition to Tatum, I'm hearing Sam Houser and Derrick White could join them as well. Houser has a minimum of one year left on his team option, and will become eligible for an extension this summer; he's going to be more expensive, but Boston sees him as a keeper. One potential cap shenanigan would be to decline Houser's team option for 2024-25 and re-sign him for less money and more years than the extension that begins in 2025-26. Doing so would increase the Celtics' tax penalty in 2024-25, but reduce the impact of the repeater penalty and make the second apron manageable in the out years.
Meanwhile, White will be eligible for an extension this summer for up to four years and $127 million, including incentives; league sources say the Celtics are very interested in dealing him and will have to offer every penny to make it happen. (White's extension amount has been reported as a different number in some places, as incentives in his deal were not considered likely before this season. But based on his 2023-24 season, they are all likely.)
Looking at the books and the salary-cap implications, an overarching strategy becomes more clear: a spirited race to repeat in 2024-25, possibly followed by some tough decisions a year later. In particular, if all those extensions come to fruition, the key to continuing Boston's reign will be figuring out how to build a frontcourt on a budget.
Horford and Kristaps Porzingis signed two-year extensions shortly after arriving, but they will be the first two significant Celtics players to leave. Horford will likely earn $9.5 million in his final season. Porzingis' deal expires in 2026, when he will earn $30.7 million.
After a stellar season in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics could hardly be in a better position to defend their title. And yet, even if we accept Boston as a clear favorite, I would urge some caution before heading into next season. As I mentioned above, things are never as inevitable as they seem. A Celtics cynic might point to a few things:
- Their system relies heavily on two rare centers, one of whom is very old and the other very injury-prone.
- While Tatum is great, the Celtics are unlikely to have the best player on the court in any important series.
- Winning the East won't be so easy next time around: we've never seen the Milwaukee Bucks play at full strength, the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers are set to reinvent themselves in the offseason and the New York Knicks are assembling a similar lineup of performers to the way the Celtics dominated. And surely the Miami Heat aren't going to take all of this lying down… right?
So I'll conclude by contradicting myself a bit. Yes, the Celtics have proven they should be the clear favorites in 2024-25, and the recognition of their historic 2023-24 campaign has been too late and too muted. As I mentioned earlier this year, their switchable, five-out lineup is the future, and their front office has consistently been a step ahead of the pack.
They're basically pretty great. But they're not inevitable. In a 30-team league, surviving the playoff meat-grinder even once requires a lot of luck. Boston is better positioned than anyone else to do it again, but recent history suggests betting the field may still be the smarter play.
Required Reading
(Photo: Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)