Ukraine's 95th Air Assault Brigade is in action this summer.
95th Air Assault Brigade photo
It shocked many observers—apparently many Russians, too—when, on Thursday, Ukrainian sappers aboard a former Soviet IMR-2 engineering vehicle near the Russian village of Novypit just south of the Russian-Ukrainian border. Breached defense boundaries.
The village is 20 miles west of the capital city of Ukraine in Kursk Oblast, Russia. Six weeks ago, a powerful Ukrainian force—a dozen battalions of eight or more veteran brigades—attacked Kursk and quickly took control of 400 square miles of Russian territory.
If it wasn't clear last week why Ukrainians would even attack around Novy Pit, now it's a bit clearer. Backed by tanks and Ukrainian Air Force fighter jets covering buildings with glide bombs, apparently anchored by the 95th Air Assault Brigade, a Ukrainian tactical group cuts right as it moves past Novy Pit. rising and passing through the southern blocks of the nearest Russian city of Vassulu. .
That is to say, Ukrainian forces are moving towards the central Kursk salient. If the Ukrainians attacking northeast from Novi Pot could link up with the Ukrainians at a central point, they would likely cut off thousands of Russians between themselves and the border.
But it is possible that the Ukrainians do not have a well-equipped force to complete the maneuver.
The Ukrainian Khorne Group, a team of drone operators supporting the Novi Pot offensive, pointed to the encirclement objective at the start of the attack near Novi Pot. “We have made inroads into new territories, kilometer by kilometer, in Russia,” the group said on Friday. “A group of Russian recruits in the thousands is at risk of being surrounded.”
If the Ukrainians are indeed trying to encircle Russian forces, the local geography makes the move easier. The Sam River forms a natural boundary along the most northern edge of the potential pocket, connecting the left and right flanks of advancing Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine runs in blue, Russian in red.
Google Maps by David X
Ukrainian bombs and rockets have destroyed all permanent bridges over the Sim in the area, so any Russians south of the Sim — and they may have entire battalions — can use makeshift pontoon bridges, or one through the city of Kurinevo. Depends on the narrow land bridge. To resupply them.
This is why the Ukrainians are constantly bombing them as soon as the Russians install them. And that is why the Ukrainian force, anchored by the 225th Assault Battalion, is marching on Kurinevo, clearly intent on breaking the land bridge.
A Russian counteroffensive in Kursk that began last week hasn't made much progress—and, if anything, has worsened the Russian mood in a potential pocket south of Korinovo by sending additional troops into the pocket.
Geography is not everything. The balance of forces in Kursk could weigh on the Ukrainians' chances of success in ending a potential encirclement. Kiev seems to have devoted about 10,000 troops to a two-pronged attack on Kursk. Moscow may have sent 38,000 troops to the oblast — but many of them are poorly trained youth recruits.
Russia is struggling to produce a trained workforce. Ukraine is struggling to produce. anyone Manpower – and modern armored vehicles – are also in short supply. Only four of the 14 new brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have sufficiently modern vehicles, Ukraine Press. Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN.
Zelenskiy said a lack of equipment is hampering Ukraine's ambitions on the battlefield. “We have the desire, but the tools have not come.”