Will Nifty50, Bank Nifty climb towards record highs?

Nifty has been consolidating in the range of 23,200 to 23,700 levels for the last 10 trading sessions. Only a break above or below this range can help it establish further trend; otherwise, it will trade within this range till June 27. The momentum indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is well in buy mode on daily and weekly timeframes, which is positive in the short term. The hourly momentum is also reversing from the zero-reference line, which is positive for further upside. Nifty has provided a breakout from the upward sloping parallel channel and until it breaks the 23,200 level, the overall trend is upwards.

With respect to derivatives data, Nifty PCR (Put Call Ratio) has moved back above 1, now at 1.04, which makes it slightly bullish neutral. It is above its Max Pain and Modified Max Pain levels of 23,400 and 23,526 respectively, making these levels crucial supports in the near term. There has been good addition on the Put side from 23,500 to 23,300 strike, with significant addition at 23,000 Put strike, while there have been some Call side additions from 23,700 to 23,900 strike, and significant addition was seen at 24,000 Call strike. It seems that the range is 23,700-23,300, and a breakout from this range will help the index to move further in the bullish direction.

Key Resistance: 23,700

Key Support: 23,300

Strategy: Buy on dips near 23,400, place a stop-loss at 23,200 and target 23,700, 23,900.

Mehul Kothari, DVP – Technical Research, Anand Rathi

We are seeing index management at its peak. Since the big green candle on June 7, Nifty50 has been moving slowly upwards, but closing in red (close is lower than opening). We see nine consecutive red candles, most of which are indecisive. This may not bode well for the markets in the coming sessions. There was a breakout from the rising channel, and hence the trendline of the channel will be a crucial support in the coming week. That support is around 23,300, and a close below it will confirm breakout failure. In that case, we may see severe profit booking in the markets. Traders are advised to adhere to a strict stop loss of 23,300 for their long positions. On the upside, the gradual rise will continue above 23,700 points, but that seems unlikely right now.

Key Resistance: 23,600, 23,700

Key Support: 23,300

Strategy: Sell Nifty or buy Puts below 23,500, place stop loss at 23,600 and target at 23,300.

Pravesh Gaur, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart

Nifty is trading volatile with a positive bias, where 23,200 is the immediate and crucial support level. Below 23,200, we can expect some profit booking towards the 20-DMA of 23,000. On the upside, 23,665 and 23,800 are the resistance levels.

Key Resistance: 23,665, 23,800, 24,000

Key Support: 23,200, 23,000, 22,800

Strategy: Consider buying on dips near 23,200, keeping a stop-loss at 23,000 and target 23,800.

Bank Nifty – Outlook and Positioning

Jai Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives & Quant Research, ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty has been consolidating in the range of 52,000 to 51,000 since its last weekly close. It has formed a symmetrical triangular pattern which is likely to break out on the upside. Private sector banks are trending well on the upside in the short term, which should help the index move higher. Momentum indicator MACD is in buy mode on the daily and weekly charts, however in sell mode on the hourly chart, which suggests some more consolidation till the price moves beyond 52,000 levels.

With respect to derivatives data, PCR is well above 1, at 1.22, which indicates that bulls have the upper hand. The maximum pain is at 51,500 and the modified maximum pain is at 51,887. Hence, the index is trading within this range of 51,500 to 51,887, and a breakout from this range would bring about a further directional move. There are significant Put additions from 52,000 to 51,000 strike, while minor Call additions are seen from 52,100 to 53,000 levels. However, if 52,000 is retaken with a gap up, further short covering can be expected till 52,500 levels.

Key Resistance: 52,000

Key Support: 51,500, 51,000

Strategy: Buy near 51,700 and 51,500, place a stop-loss at 51,000 and target 52,000 and 52,500.

Mehul Kothari, DVP – Technical Research, Anand Rathi

Last week we saw the much-awaited short covering in Bank Nifty. The index outperformed the benchmark and touched nearly 52,000 points with a gain of over 3 percent. Technically, the index has broken the rising trendline resistance, and a breach of 51,000 points on a closing basis will confirm its failure. The upside hurdle is at 52,000, and below 51,000 levels, we may see profit booking in banking stocks as well.

Key Resistance: 51,800, 52,000

Key Support: 51,600, 51,000

Strategy: Sell below 51,600 and target 51,100, stop-loss at 51,800.

Pravesh Gaur, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart

Bank Nifty is showing strong momentum; however, 52,000 is the trendline resistance. 51,000 is the immediate support level; below this, 50,250 will be the next support level. On the upside, 52,000, 52,600 and 53,000 are the resistance levels.

Key Resistance: 52,000, 52,600, 53,000

Key Support: 51,000, 50,250

Strategy: Consider buying on dips near 51,000, with a stop-loss at 50,250 and a target of 53,000.

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